President Obama’s promise to veto a Palestinian petition for membership in the United Nations further undermines American credibility in the Middle East. However, Obama today has little room to maneuver. It is regrettable that Mahmoud Abbas will force his potentially strongest ally into a corner.
The precarious state of the American economy makes it easier for the president’s challengers not only to undermine his fiscal strategies but also his policies in general. Obama’s main concern is the economy, and his reelection will depend on whether he is perceived to have acted competently in dealing with it. In the meantime the political environment makes it extremely risky to upset the status quo in other fields. If the economy is fixed, then the Obama administration will have the confidence to act more decisively. Until then there will be an aversion to progressive policies.
The disparate US government reactions toward the counter-revolutions in Bahrain, Libya and Egypt, for example, have been text-book in relation to the conventional interests at stake. Oppose the repression in Libya (madman in charge of a state with little strategic value), tentatively watch the one in Egypt (location of the Suez Canal), and ignore the one in Bahrain (home of the US 5th Fleet). Should the question of Palestinian membership in the UN come up in the Security Council, it will be handled in the same way, conventionally.
Perhaps Abbas believes that Obama will not win a second term, and feels that Palestine has a zero chance of recognition with a Republican administration. Perhaps Abbas feels he needs to do something historic before his own time runs out. What is certain is that the Obama administration could have helped the Palestinian cause in a second term. Three quarters of the way through an embattled first term, only votes for reelection matter. The timing of this anticipated Palestinian move at the UN could not be worse for Palestinians.
